24 Şubat 2008 Pazar

[Dems2008] Re: Falling dollar >> inflation (e.g. crude oil]

No contradiction at all:

  • when for example retailers foresee a slow Christmas season, they start discounting earlier (that's DROPPING prices)
  • and if you drop a price while your wholesale and transporation prices are rising you are passing on LESS of your price rise at the wholesale level or not passing on as much of the price rises that you as a vendor are experiencing
  • I hope this is not too far over your head Mark:  anyone who shops knows this much economics
  • when consumer spending slows, a vendor with inventory cuts prices, or does not raise prices, as he otherwise might if intent on passing on his prices to his wholesaler
  • WalMart, for example, just a few months ago, announced big additional discounting precisely tied to a slowing consumer

 


--- In Dems2008@yahoogroups.com, "mmshlevi" <mmshlevi@...> wrote:
>
> Citation you are contradicting yourself. How can a slowing economy
> restrain companies from passing on to consumers higher prices and at
> the same time be charging them more?
>
> Looks like you just Google subjects and make up a conclusion.
>
> Martin
>
>
>
>
> --- In Dems2008@yahoogroups.com, "citation502" citation502@ wrote:
> >
> >
> > Bill, thx for the link; many for years have been reporting how the CPI
> > understates real price inflation; and even on the nominal numbers the
> > PPI (producer/wholesale price indices) have been rising even
> > faster.........and it's only a slowing economy that has restrained
> > vendors and mfrs from passing on to consumers the higher prices.
> >
> > UPS and FedEx raising rates, airlines and any business that consumes a
> > lot of energy adding surcharges (I'd say my trash removal charges have
> > been rising 8-9% a year for example), ocean shippers (both dry and
> > liquid) raising shipping rates, steel companies raising their prices,
> > commodities (wheat and corn) through the roof, and the list goes on and
> > on and on
> >
> >
> > --- In Dems2008@yahoogroups.com, "billlaurelmd" <wbuawxman@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Government statistics have been getting messed with in recent years,
> > > and I suspect it didn't *start* with Bush II, but like many things in
> > > this administration, messing with economic statistics has gone on
> > > steroids. I recommend (http://www.shadowstats.com/) Shadow Gov't
> > > Statistics, if you want to compare apples to apples, rather than price
> > > indices that, for example, allow for substitution of cheaper products
> > > that meet the same need (e.g. hamburger for sirloin stakes).
> > >
> > > Click on the alternative data link under Alternative Data Sources on
> > > that web page; that'll be quite an eye-opener for you.
> > >
> > > --- In Dems2008@yahoogroups.com, "citation502" citation502@ wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Mark you have to stop listening to Jim Cramer for your insights on
> > > > the economy; it's hazardous to one's health. The Fed is very
> > > > concerned about inflation, as their minutes and statements
> > > > accompanying rate cuts evidence. BUT they are saying at this point
> > > > that the risks of a major slowdown and the RISKS of a credit
> > meltdown
> > > > outweigh (in the short-run) the risks of inflation.
> > > >
> > > > That is not an implication that inflation is not a problem. That is
> > > > a signal that the concerns with the credit and capital markets, and
> > > > the slowing economy, are SO ENORMOUS that they dwarf the inflation
> > > > concern. Our problem is the likelihood of return to what we
> > > > experienced in the 70s, which went by the name "stag-flation" --
> > > > stagnant growth COUPLED WITH high inflation.
> > > >
> > > > --- In Dems2008@yahoogroups.com, "mmshlevi" <mmshlevi@> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > Core inflation rose by 2.4 percent for all of 2007, down slightly
> > > > from
> > > > > a 2.6 percent increase in 2006.
> > > > >
> > > > > These are number from the Federal Reserve -Check them out.
> > > > >
> > > > > This is why the Fed has cut the Discount rate. It would not have
> > if
> > > > > inflation a problem.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Martin
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In Dems2008@yahoogroups.com, "citation502" <citation502@>
> > wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Mark, excuse me, but I won't respond further to your posts. You
> > > > just
> > > > > > make things up.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In Dems2008@yahoogroups.com, "mmshlevi" <mmshlevi@> wrote:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I thought someone would bring up the price of crude oil. Crude
> > > > oil
> > > > > > has
> > > > > > > been rising at double digit rates for over two years.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Guess what? inflation has remained low the entire time. Core
> > > > > > inflation
> > > > > > > has remained at around 2% despite the rise in crude price. The
> > > > > > > inflation fear mongers have all been wrong.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > The Fed has validated this because it has lowered interest in
> > > > face
> > > > > > of
> > > > > > > rising oil prices. The Fed would not do this if there was
> > > > inflation.
> > > > > > > Paul Volcker raised interest rates in a recession and
> > inflation
> > > > > > period
> > > > > > > in '79, so don't think it isn't possible.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Martin Levi
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > --- In Dems2008@yahoogroups.com, Citation <citation502@>
> > wrote:
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > The chief near-term impact of a weak dollar is the
> > > > > > > inflation impact. The most-obvious recent example is the price
> > > > of
> > > > > > > crude oil, now bordering on $100 bbl. Crude oil is priced in
> > > > U.S.
> > > > > > > dollars worldwide, and it is not happenstance that the rapid
> > > > descent
> > > > > > > of the dollar in the last year has coincided with crude oil
> > > > running
> > > > > > > from the mid-$60s to near $100. The chart on the dollar is
> > > > almost a
> > > > > > > perfect inversion of the chart on crude oil.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Most who follow those markets will agree that perhaps $25-
> > > > 30 in
> > > > > > > the price of a barrel of crude is a direct result of the
> > > > devaluation
> > > > > > > of the U.S.DOLLAR.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > http://tinyurl.com/34oxv9
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > ---------------------------------
> > > > > > > > Never miss a thing. Make Yahoo your homepage.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
>

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