VIRGINIA DEMS--AND REPUBLICANS--MAKE OBAMA'S CASE... It's hard to know where the
good news ends for Barack Obama as results pile in from the Potomac. There was no
question that Obama would dominate in DC and Maryland. But his overwhelming romp in
Virginia--one of a handful of formerly "red" states that are toss-ups for 2008--made the
best case yet that the Illinois senator just might live up to his promise of blasting the red-
blue electoral map to smithereens come November.
Meanwhile, the surprising Republican results in Virginia, where Mike Huckabee gave John
McCain a scare, bolstered Obama's argument just as effectively. It wasn't a shock that
McCain fared poorly among right-wing Christians and the sorts of NASCAR Republicans
who've been guffawing happily this week over the revelation that the genial theocrat from
Arkansas fried squirrel in a popcorn popper during his heck-raising college days. But the
results underscored an undercurrent that defies conventional wisdom: McCain's shakiness
among the very voters--suburban independents--who are supposed to be his ace in the
hole. While Obama was winning over all kinds of Virginians he was not supposed to have a
prayer with, McCain was losing some of those he absolutely has to have. And losing them
in a state that he has to carry to have any chance of becoming President.
Like Missouri and Colorado, both of which Obama won last week, Virginia can make a valid
case for being one of the "next Ohios" of 2008--the next ideologically mixed,
demographically topsy-turvy state where Republicans will have to fight mighty hard to
defend their turf. With the influx of non-native professional types and Hispanic
immigrants into Northern Virginia in recent decades, the Old Dominion has become a
thoroughly Middle American state of the 21st century in terms of its politics--a lively
mash-up of conservative Christians, Blue State liberals, rural populists and swelling ranks
of independents (more than one-third of Virginians no longer register D or R). It's
American politics in miniature And that is what makes the results--on both sides--so
revealing.
Obama won pretty much every constituency where he's presumed to be weakest: women
(58 percent in rough exit polls), rural voters (60 percent), Latinos (55 percent) and folks
without college educations (63 percent). He won handily among people who think Iraq
matters most, who think health care matters most, and who think the economy matters
most. He took more than 60 percent of the vote among those making both less and more
than $50,000. Obama narrowly carried the white vote in Virginia, continuing to build on
his momentum among the notoriously stubborn Caucasian Democrats of Dixie, having
won 25 percent of white votes in South Carolina (when the race was still three-way) and
then bucked it up to 43 percent in Georgia last week. He also won the stubbornest
demographic in Virginia, whites over 65. Only white women went for Clinton, and by
nowhere near Obama's 16-point margin among white men.
As Democrats look forward to a match-up with McCain--and even with the looming threat
of superdelegates, why shouldn't them?--one set of numbers sticks out from the rest:
Obama nearly doubled Clinton's vote among white independents in Virginia, winning 63
percent. Meanwhile, in the single most stunning number of the night, McCain actually lost
among independents who cast their ballots in the Republican primary. His margin of
victory came not from independents, but from Republicans--a terrible omen for his
"electability." Huckabee also beat McCain in those bastions of independent (but also, of
course, megachurch) voting, the suburbs, while Obama was pulling 60 percent of
suburbanites on the other side. The other prime indicators of how independents might
vote in November looked equally good for Obama and lousy for McCain: While Obama won
big with under-45 voters, who are the most likely to register independent, McCain lost big
among the youngest voters (under 30) while taking 47 percent of the 30-44 age group. To
add just one more bit of sour news for McCain, fewer independents voted in the
Republican primary in Virginia this year -- 76 percent of the voters were card-carrying
GOPers, as opposed to just 63 percent in 2000.
On the night when McCain vanquished his last remaining (long-shot) competitor,
Republican voters made one thing bleedingly evident: They'd like nothing more than a do-
over of this whole nomination business. Preferably with an entirely different cast of
candidates. Meanwhile, the optimistic-but-fretful Democrats soldier on toward March 4,
when Obama gets his own chance to deliver a knockout punch in Ohio and Texas. It's still
presumptuous--as the change-monger himself likes to say--to count Clinton out.
Obama will have to earn those victories, and earn them in the most valuable way--by
selling himself to two vital groups of purple-state folks he hasn't convinced yet, white
economic populists in Ohio (who tend to vote a whole lot like white Southerners) and
Latinos all across the Lone Star state. But a distinct pattern has already emerged: Obama
runs stronger in states where the party has an historic chance to win back the middle--
states like Iowa, Missouri, Colorado--and now, Virginia.
Purple America is ready, and eager, for Obama. His popularity with young voters,
independents and suburbanites could very well translate into an overwhelming general-
election victory. As for McCain--who is being hectored to pander even more to the GOP's
right-wingnuts, which will only further alienate his former independent fans--his chances
seem to boil down to one increasingly improbably headline: "Hillary Clinton Wins
Democratic Nomination."
Posted by BOB MOSER at 02/12/2008 @ 11:41pm | Email This Post
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