Democrats,
In a recent Time article, it is suggested that John McCain may be the
luckiest guy on earth. I think Time might be right based on the 2008
presidential campaign thus far. But John McCain is going to need a
bit more than luck if he plans on becoming President of the United
States.
Surely, the Republican Party would really like for McCain to win the
Presidency, but that's not really what they're expecting. They expect
to lose. This is why John McCain is in the race in the first place,
is why he almost went completely broke in 2007, and is why the money
has not been pouring in since Romney left the race weeks ago.
You see, John McCain is their nominee in 2008 for the same reasons
Kerry was the Democratic nominee in 2004 -- it's a throwaway election
for the Republicans. Now, before you react to this, understand that
this should be taken in context. It's not like the Democrats didn't
try really hard to get Kerry to win in 2004. But the very premise and
quality of the Democratic candidates in 2004 spoke of a Hail Mary
pass to the nation: "Here's the pick-up team... let's see if we can't
pull an upset!"
Now compare the Democrats' 2004 slate with the Republican 2008 slate.
There is a similar dynamic at play. Look carefully at the Republican
contestants: A pro-choice Mormon, a southern minister-cum-governor
who says the darnedest things, a liberal Mayor, a sleepy actor, and a
great grandfather who apologized to Krusty the Clown of The Simpsons
when he called Rush Limbaugh a clown.
This is clearly the B-team, and assuredly so since all the internal
polls told the RNC back in 2006 that there was no point of injuring
the A-team in the current political environment.
None of this means that McCain is guaranteed to lose, of course.
Kerry did almost win in 2004. But it does give Democrats a leg up in
almost all aspects of this race:
The grand conservative coalition will not be united, even though they
will claim they are
The good money will not come in unless McCain unexpectedly shows an
ability to lead the party
McCain will spend a lot of energy navigating political land mines the
entire race as he bobs and weaves between the competing demands of
his electoral and political bases
The zeal that has powered the conservative movement since 1975 will
be diminished
But, keep a watch out: Republicans will have no problem investing in
negative attacks on Democrats, because those attacks are a good
investment no matter how good or bad their candidate is.
Yes, I know it's tiresome that the Democratic candidates are set to
continue battling it out across the nation. But, on balance, this is
a good thing. Sure, there will be negative attacks, dress-downs, and
money spent fighting amongst themselves. But, more importantly, these
candidates will be practicing for the final fight, getting fit and
prepped for the big event. In addition, each state that gets a real
Democratic primary race will be more invested in that candidate
overall. The brand impact and interaction of the two Democratic
candidates will be deployed to most every important state in the
general election.
The media will continue to get hung up on the mudslinging and the
apparent waste of energy in the Democratic primary. But I see it as a
great promotional opportunity for the candidates, and the party: the
candidates' names, positions and platforms will continue to get
tremendous news coverage, and the party will be seen as a dynamic,
relevant, and democratically engaged organization.
Compare this to McCain, who, outside of New Hampshire and South
Carolina, faintly campaigned for the nomination. And the Republican
Party, by comparison, looks more like a coronation party that doesn't
care all that much about what American voters really want.
In America, a country that has made it its business to further spread
democracy around the world, it would seem like the political party
energetically engaged in democracy would be seen as the preferable
party at a deep-seated, cultural level.
The Democratic Party continues to demonstrate that it is the party of
true American Values.
--- In Dems2008@yahoogroups.com, "citation502" <citation502@...>
wrote:
>
>
> * A few reasons for some optimism about the fall:
> * 40% of Americans self-identify as Dems; 26% as Republicans
> * McCain supports Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy
> * McCain supports the war.......big time
> * McCain is wrong on choice
> * McCain is an idiot on the economy, and his age and ignorance
will
> show during the campaign
> * the issue of immigration -- that could have been fatal to the
Dems
> -- has been neutralized by McCain's nomination
> * McCain has lobbyist issues, and credibility issues about
lobbyist
> issues.......or just a bad memory.
> * An economy in decline and disrepair is NEVER good for the
> incumbent party; and things are just getting worse
> * 5% of the 61 million hapless souls who voted for Bush in 2004
are
> dead now; and youth are energized as they have not been in decades
> * the primary season turnout in Dem primaries is dwarfing that
in GOP
> primaries
>
>
> --- In Dems2008@yahoogroups.com, "raschueller" <raschueller@> wrote:
> >
> > No what I want is an end to this stupidity. But its not going to
end.
> > Everytime there is a ray of hope... it gets crushed. Its the same
> > stupid Democratic establishment that has screwed up YEAR AFTER
YEAR.
> > You and I fundimentally degree on many things, but on one thing
you
> and
> > I do agree. This is about November. Maybe you can give me a
reason to
> > have some hope, but all I see is a strategy that began the week
before
> > Wisconsin that has gutted this party.
> >
> > In the end I am a yellow dog democrat. But I will be damned if I
am
> > going to be cheerful about our party falling apart before my eyes.
> >
> > You can talk all you want about PA and OH but if all we can do is
> fight
> > the same battles in 2000 and 2004 and ESPECIALLY this year not
target
> > new states and some new seats then the Republicans have already
won.
> >
>
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