Christine Gregoire, Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill
DT: Wednesday, March 12, 2008
RE: Debunking the Clinton Campaign's Dubious "Big State" Spin
In an attempt to minimize the significance of Barack Obama's success in winning more
than twice as many states as Senator Clinton, her campaign's supporters have attempted to
diminish the importance of the states where Senator Obama has prevailed.
Senator Obama has scored important victories in each of our states - states that will play a
decisive role in deciding whether or not John McCain will be given the chance to enter the
White House and extend George Bush's failed policies for another 4 years.
In each of the 30 primaries and caucuses that Obama has now won, including Mississippi
yesterday, he's shown the ability to motivate Democrats to turn out at the polls, win the
support of blue collar voters in suburban and rural communities and attract the support of
Independents and Republicans. That's the kind of candidate Democrats need to nominate
to beat John McCain in November, and it's the kind of leader America needs to bring to
Washington the kind of change we can believe in.
The Clinton campaign's argument ignores relevant facts about how significant a role these
states played in determining the outcome of the presidential race in 2004. In fact, Obama
has won 7 of 9 of the biggest states that were close in the 2004 presidential election and
have already selected delegates to the 2008 Democratic convention.
More than half of the votes that Senator Clinton has won so far have come from just five
states. It's also worth noting that polls in four of these five states show that Obama would
be a stronger general election candidate against McCain than Clinton.
Obama Winning Vast Majority of Big States that Were Close in 2004
Nine of the largest states that were decided by a margin of 8 points or less in 2004 have
already held a caucus or a primary to select delegates to the 2008 Democratic Convention
in Denver. Obama has won seven of those nine contests - including four that Bush won.
Clinton Totals Padded by States Where Obama Does Best Against McCain
The Clinton campaign's misleading argument about the importance of her performance in
the largest states actually highlights the limits of her appeal and her ability to win the
general election.
To turn the Clinton argument around, more than 55% of her popular vote total and nearly
half of her pledged delegates have come in just five states. In four of them, polls show
that Obama would be a stronger general election candidate against McCain than Clinton. In
the fifth, Texas, Clinton admitted that she didn't expect it to be "in the general election
calculation."
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