22 Nisan 2008 Salı

[Dems2008] Exit polls

There are two facets of the exit polls that Obama supporters should like to hear tonight (see below).
 
Actually, for those interested in the rest of the campaign and the fall campaign, the exit polls and the demographics they reveal are of more importance and lasting value than the actual win/lose vote totals per state.   Virginia, Maryland, Wisconsin are distant  memories, and Penna. will be an old news story in several days from  now.
 
What strikes me about the exit polls is that fewer than 65% of white women report voting  for Hillary; I think that's lower than in past primaries; and only 53% of white males supported Hillary.   We always thought the white male vote in Penna. would be the critical swing vote that would determine this thing,but as against 92% of African Americans voting for Barack, 53%  of  white  males for  Hillary is rather paltry.
 
I guess the other objective that Barack will have achieved is that he wanted to make Penna. competitive enough to cost Hillary a lot of her money.........and clearly he  has done that.   Open question whether she has the money to  be really competitive in Indiana, North Carolina and Oregon.  I doubt it.


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