Ongoing nomination fight hurting Clinton more than Obama
By Kathy Miller | The Hillary Project
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By: Charles Babington & Trevor Tompson, AP
In a dramatic reversal, an Associated Press-Yahoo! News poll found
that a clear majority of Democratic voters now say Sen. Barack Obama
has a better chance of defeating Republican Sen. John McCain in
November than Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
While Obama and Clinton are both sustaining dents and dings from
their lengthy presidential fight, the former first lady is clearly
suffering more. Democratic voters no longer see her as the party's
strongest contender for the White House.
Voters of all types have gotten a better sense of Obama, who was an
obscure Illinois legislator just four years ago. As more people moved
from the "I don't know him" category in the AP-Yahoo! News poll, more
rated Obama as inexperienced, unethical and dishonest. And 15 percent
erroneously think he's a Muslim, thanks in part to disinformation
widely spread on the Internet.
But Obama's positive ratings have climbed as well, while Clinton —
widely known since the early 1990s — has been less able to change
people's views of her. And when those views have shifted, it has hurt
her more than helped.
The New York senator's ratings for being honest, likable, ethical and
refreshing have fallen since January, and Obama scores higher than
she does in all those categories.
In late January, before Obama scored 11 straight primary and caucus
victories, 56 percent of Democrats saw Clinton as the stronger
nominee, compared to 33 percent for Obama. Now, Obama leads on that
question, 56 to 43 percent.
Still, the poll, conducted by Knowledge Networks, contains some
worrisome signs for the first-term senator. Those rating him as "not
at all honest," for example, jumped from 18 percent last fall to 27
percent in April. It came as he was put on the defensive over
incendiary comments by his former pastor. But many holding such views
are Republicans or conservative independents, who would be unlikely
to vote in a Democratic primary or support a Democrat in the fall,
anyway.
The most encouraging sign for Obama is that many Democrats who
previously saw Clinton as their party's best hope now give him that
role. About one-third of them still prefer Clinton, but they have
lost confidence in her electability.
"I would love to vote for Hillary," said Nancy Costello of Bellevue,
Ky., one of the more than 1,800 randomly selected adults whose
opinions are rechecked every few months. "I'm 67, and I'll probably
never get another chance to vote for a woman."
But Obama now appears to be the stronger candidate, she said, and
electing a Democrat in November is paramount. If McCain wins and
continues many of President Bush's economic and foreign policies,
Costello said, "I think I would just sit down and cry."
By tracking the same group throughout the campaign, the AP-Yahoo!
News poll can gauge how individual views change. It suggests that
Clinton has paid a price for hammering Obama since early February on
several issues as she tries to overcome his lead in delegates and the
popular vote. Among those Democrats who no longer consider her the
more electable of the two, most now see her as less likable,
decisive, strong, honest, experienced and ethical than they did in
January.
Meanwhile, those same voters are more likely to see Obama as strong,
honest and refreshing than before.
Beulah Barton of Leesburg, Fla., said she initially backed Clinton,
partly because she liked Bill Clinton's record as president.
"But the more I hear her talk, and the more I hear him talk, the more
put off I am," said Barton, 69. "I think she's brash, I think she's
rude. I get the feeling that she feels she deserves to be president"
and doesn't need "to earn it."
Barton said she likes Obama, and ignores e-mails suggesting that he
refuses to salute the flag or is somehow threatening "because of his
name."
"People try to make him look like a traitor," she said. "I think he
has risen above most of that stuff."
Some misinformation sticks, however. The great majority of the poll's
participants said this month they did not know the religious
affiliation of Clinton (a Methodist) or Obama (United Church of
Christ). But 15 percent ventured that Obama, whose father was Kenyan,
is a Muslim.
That group includes more Democrats than Republicans, and it doesn't
necessarily worry them.
Randi Estes, a Democrat from Ada, Okla., said she prefers Clinton but
feels Obama is likely to win the nomination. "He's gotten very strong
media coverage, and Bill Clinton's not helping her a bit," said
Estes, 36, who has four children under the age of 6.
Speaking of Obama, she said, "I have a sense he's a Muslim."
If Obama wins the nomination, the poll indicates he will need to mend
his image a bit as he battles McCain for independents and soft
Republicans. His favorability rating among all voters has declined,
with those ranking him as "very unfavorable" growing from 17 percent
in January to 25 percent in April. Most of them are Republicans and
independents.
In January, 30 percent of Republicans rated Obama very unfavorably.
That grew to 43 percent in April. Among the coveted independents, 12
percent had a very unfavorable view of Obama in January. That has
nearly doubled to 23 percent.
Obama would be the first black president, and the survey detected
some evidence of racial discomfort in voters' minds. It found that
about 8 percent of whites would be uncomfortable voting for a black
for president. It produced an estimate of about 13 percent of
Republicans who would feel that way, but suggested very few if any
Democrats would now be uncomfortable. In November, about 5 percent of
Democrats indicated discomfort at voting for a black person for
president.
For Allen Lovell, a moderate Democrat in Everett, Wash., race is
unimportant, but replacing Bush with a Democrat is vital. And lately
he has concluded that Obama probably has the better chance of beating
McCain.
"I am leaning towards him, not because he's black — because I'm
white — but because we definitely need a change," said Lovell, 50.
He said the Democratic campaign has lasted too long, but there is one
topic he'd like to hear more about. Lovell, who guessed that Obama
is "either Christian or Muslim," said: "I don't think we're getting
enough information on religion" from the candidates.
The survey of 1,844 adults was conducted April 2-14 and had an
overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage
points. Included were interviews with 863 Democrats, for whom the
margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.3 points, and 668
Republicans, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8
points.
The poll was conducted over the Internet by Knowledge Networks. It
initially contacted people using traditional telephone polling
methods, and followed with online interviews. People chosen for the
study who had no Internet access were given it for free.
Source: Yahoo
--- In Dems2008@yahoogroups.com, catpurdy@... wrote:
>
> You are wasting your time - he's a firm Hillary supporter.
>
> raglangr@... writes:
>
> > Why should Hillary drop? She won the primary last night. No fan
of her,
> > but I don't see why she should.
> >
> > --- On Wed, 4/23/08, mgommesen <mgommesen@...> wrote:
> > >> From: mgommesen <mgommesen@...>
> >> Subject: [Dems2008] Email Evan Bayh NOW!!!
> >> To: Dems2008@yahoogroups.com
> >> Date: Wednesday, April 23, 2008, 12:29 PM
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> senator@bayh. senate.gov
> >>
> >> It not a question of Obama or Hillary. It is a question of
having a
> >> Democrat elected to the Presidency in November. The longer this
> >> campaign continues, the result will be a candidate that has
> >> hopelessly damaged and weaken. The Democratic party will be
> >> hopelessly divided.
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
>
> **************
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