Clinton Count
Obama: 1,201.5 823 59% needed
Clinton: 1,042 982 51% needed
Obama Campaign
Obama 1,418 70%
Clinton 1,251 61%
NYT
Obama 1,418.5 605.5 70%
Clinton 1,250.5 776.5 61%
Keep in mind that every news service has the count in the ball park of
the NYT but apparently Hillary has her own brand of math. So for the
following logic I will use Hillary numbers. (Except for super
delegates and soft pledged) Soft pledged is a whacky new term she came
up with to muddy the waters. Soft pledged delegates come from a few
states that do not require a signed oath. Most states do. But the soft
pledged total is added on to the Clinton totals. The reason is these
are hard core supporters. While either side might sway one or two, in
the history of the party this has only happened twice. So any changing
would be minuscule.
Lets include super delegates
Which Clinton and Obama do not count in their total. None of the
superdelegates are pledged. I guess it does save time changing the
numbers on the count board.
NYT
Obama 1675.5 80.4%
Clinton 1,471.5 72.7%
Here the AP is different
Obama 1632 80.6
Clinton 1500 74%
Now lets Add michigan and Florida. Assuming a by the rules 50%
reduction then a nearly direct vote/delegate ratio.
These are estimates but close.
190 Florida Delegates
reduced by half for violation
total delegates 95
Clinton 50 delegates
Obama 33
Edwards 7
Net gain 17
This is close to the totals although proportionals my pull Edwards up
and Hillary down.
Michigan 108 delegates
half penalty 54
Clinton 37
undecided 17
Keep in mind Hillary got 55% of the vote against undecided. But I
added several delegates to her count from the undecided lot. While
giving Obama none.
Clinton net gain is 54 delegates in a best case scenario. So where
does that place the totals.
The total to win now becomes 2099
so now we have according to the NYT
Obama at 81% left to win
Clinton at 74% to win
Total pledged delegate count with Michigan and Florida at 1/2 penalty
Obama 1451.5
Clinton 1337.5
Difference 109.5
In short Michigan and Florida give Hillary a net 2% gain in the race.
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