ed
----- Original Message ----
From: worldpeacesoon <berts420@yahoo.com>
To: Dems2008@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, April 14, 2008 8:31:08 PM
Subject: [Dems2008] Re: Hillary takes 20 point lead in PA*
Ed, the firm that did that poll, ARG, has a shaky track record. If you go to
Realclearpolitics.com, you will see that they do not include ARG for the above reason. here
is an article:
http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/is-clintons-pennsylvania-lead-really-20-points-
319/
Is Clinton's Pennsylvania Lead Really 20 Points?
A new survey showing Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Sen. Barack Obama by 20 percentage
points in Pennsylvania comes from a polling firm with a shaky track record this election
season.
The poll, which topped the Drudge Report on Monday afternoon ("shock poll"), was issued
by American Research Group Inc. (ARG). In the poll, conducted on Friday, Saturday and
Sunday, 57% of likely Democratic voters said they were supporting Sen. Clinton, compared
with 37% for Sen. Obama. Just last week, each candidate received 45% in an ARG poll in
the state. Other recent polls generally show a much smaller Clinton lead.
But there are reasons to question ARG polling numbers. In a polling report card of 2008
primary accuracy issued by a rival survey company, ARG ranked in the bottom half of more
than three dozen polling firms, among 2008 primaries through late February. It also
ranked near the bottom in another ranking of pollster accuracy at fivethirtyeight.com, a
Web site that tracks the Electoral College. And, as I wrote last month, the widely tracked
polling averages at the political Web site Real Clear Politics don't include ARG numbers,
because of concerns about transparency. Like they've been in Pennsylvania, ARG polls also
were volatile in previous primaries, notably in Wisconsin, which saw a 16-point swing in
just two days.
Dick Bennett, president of ARG, acknowledged his firm struggled in early primaries, but
told me that its polls in later, big-state primaries have done well, citing California (the
final poll showed a Clinton lead of four percentage points; she won by eight), Ohio (ARG
had Sen. Clinton up by 14; she won by 10) and Texas (the poll had Sen. Clinton up by
three; she won the primary by 3.5 points but appears to have lost the caucuses).
According to Mr. Bennett, ARG's stumbles in states such as Connecticut and South Carolina
— where the firm understated Sen. Obama's support — were due to underestimating the
likelihood that first-time voters would go to the polls.
"In the tough ones, we've been close," Mr. Bennett said. "As time has gone on, we've
gotten much better."
He attributes Sen. Clinton's apparent gain to Pennsylvania voters' skepticism about the
Obama campaign's message. "People are telling us that what they're hearing from him…
doesn't speak to the issues they're interested in," Mr. Bennett said. "It doesn't matter who
he is; it's, `What are you going to do for me now?' " In the prior poll, which showed a tie,
many respondents were turned off by the release of tax returns showing that the Clintons
had a combined income of $109 million in the last seven years. But that effect had worn
off by the time latest poll was conducted, Mr. Bennett said. He sees room for more such
shifts in the two ARG polls planned between now and next Tuesday, noting that the "the
people who are making up their minds have a difficult time making a choice."
Other pollsters' numbers disagree with ARG's. Clay Richards, who runs the Quinnipiac
University Polling Institute's Pennsylvania poll, said he doesn't expect his poll that will be
published Tuesday to show much difference from the last one, which had a Clinton lead of
six points. "I don't see that much movement in Pennsylvania myself," Mr. Richards said by
phone from Harrisburg on Monday. He declined to comment specifically on his rival's
contradictory numbers.
Discrepancies among white voters account for much of the difference. Quinnipiac's last
poll showed Sen. Clinton leading among non-college-educated white voters, 62% to 31%;
that was similar to her margin among all white voters (64% to 29%) in the ARG poll, which
didn't ask about education (Mr. Bennett told me he intends to add the question for future
polls in the state). By contrast, Sen. Obama leads among college-educated white voters in
Pennsylvania, 54% to 42%, according to Quinnipiac. In the last ARG poll, Sen. Clinton's lead
among white voters had been 52% to 36%.
Both pollsters agreed that Sen. Obama hasn't been hurt much by his remarks about small-
town Pennsylvania voters last week. Mr. Bennett said few respondents mentioned them.
Mr. Richards said, "My hunch is [the remarks] won't make much of a difference because
most voters who might feel insulted by his comments were already Clinton voters or
republicans who weren't going to vote for him, anyway."
-- In Dems2008@yahoogroups.com, Edward Hochman <whovian7_2000@...> wrote:
>
> Wow, thanks for the info.........sure you don't want to switch to Hillary now that she is
on the upswing.
>
> ed
>
>
> ----- Original Message ----
> From: raschueller <raschueller@...>
> To: Dems2008@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Monday, April 14, 2008 7:59:34 PM
> Subject: [Dems2008] Re: Hillary takes 20 point lead in PA*
>
> I think she is up AT LEAST 20 points in PA. Maybe more. I think we
> should ALL expect a HUGE landslide victory for Clinton. She is
> obviously flying high and should handily win Pa then maybe even North
> Carolina!
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
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