Re: [Dems2008] Re: how hard is it to grasp

I think you mentioned this a half or more times before. there is a saying that if you repeat the same thing over and over again no matter what it is it must be true.

must be a downer.

ed

----- Original Message ----
From: raschueller <raschueller@yahoo.com>
To: Dems2008@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, April 16, 2008 2:42:06 PM
Subject: [Dems2008] Re: how hard is it to grasp

Sigh. This is not that hard.

)There are less than 30 delegates that are pledged to other
candidates. Maybe a few less than that now. The only way this goes to
a third ballot if about 20% of the Superdelegates refuse to support
either candidate.Thats not going to happen. There will be no second
ballot.

2) It impossible for Hillary to have more pledged delegates than Obama.

3) With the delegates who have confirmed and gone on record saying
they will support Obama he has have 80% of the delegates he needs to
get elected.

4) The candidate with the most pledged delegates will win the
nomination. This is because too many of the major party players do not
want this to become more of a circus than it is. The leadership of the
state delegations will push the undecided off the fence. The almost
unanimous comment by the undecideds is delegate count, votes, and
number of contests.
.

5) The bar being discussed for Hillary to continue without any
additional pressure after PA... she needs to excede her totals in Ohio
and NJ...But whether she does or does not do that she is drawing to a
dead hand. Unless Obama folds she can't win.

Again I am sticking by my prediction that she will drop before NC. She
is a woman in the need of an exit strategy. The first sign will be any
layoffs or staff changes. She is out of money and seriously out of
energy. Her campaign staff is worn paper thin. At some point those
hired happy faces, become grim determined faces. and unless she pulls
off a HUGE victory.. I can't see her continuing.

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